供需僵持，铅价区间整理

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand of lead are in a stalemate, and it is expected that the lead price will maintain a range-bound consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% month-on-month to 16,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract increased by 0.03% month-on-month to 16,850 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.12% to 1,981 US dollars/ton [14]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Ore Tightness Pattern Not Alleviated, Import TC Decreased - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month-on-month at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the import lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of ore tightness remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of August 8, the smelter profit (excluding by-product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 72.5 yuan/ton [32]. 2.2 Primary Lead开工率 Increased to 68.07% - The primary lead smelter that had undergone maintenance earlier has recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The total weekly output of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises is expected to be 52,075 tons [33][38]. 2.3 Recycled Lead开工率 Declined - As of August 15, the average price of waste batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, remaining flat month-on-month. The market - circulating supply of waste batteries is limited, and the quotation is relatively firm. As of August 15, large - scale recycled lead enterprises had a comprehensive loss of 444 yuan/ton, and small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises had a comprehensive loss of 1,023 yuan/ton. As of August 14, the raw material inventory of recycled lead was 132,400 tons, and the finished product inventory was 16,300 tons. The recycled lead enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41%, and the weekly output decreased [46][49][56]. 3. Demand Side - The lead battery operating rate increased by 2.05 percentage points to 67.3%. From the terminal perspective, battery consumption is average, dealers are mainly consuming inventory, the peak - season effect has not yet appeared, and production enterprises are mainly producing based on sales [63]. 4. Import and Export - As of August 8, the refined lead export loss was about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of August 15, the import profit was -579.41 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [73]. 5. Inventory - As of August 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 71,700 tons, with a slight increase. As of August 15, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 64,800 tons, showing a month - on - month increase; as of August 14, the LME inventory was 261,100 tons, showing a decrease [82][85].