海外宏观周报：关税压力尚未传导至消费终端-20250819

Economic Indicators - In July 2025, the US CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[10] - The PPI unexpectedly surged by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the market forecast of 0.2%[10] - Trade service prices jumped 2.0% month-on-month, indicating that wholesalers and retailers, rather than consumers, are bearing the tariff pressure[10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The expectation is for a 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025, despite the recent PPI data[3] - The upcoming August employment report is anticipated to be a key determinant for the Fed's rate decision[3] - Market pricing indicates there may be two more rate cuts within the year[23] Risks and Considerations - If tariff costs significantly transmit to the CPI, leading to sustained inflation above expectations, it could impact the Fed's rate cut schedule[4][24] - The core CPI has risen to 3.1%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures that need further data to assess the Fed's policy direction[21]