镍与不锈钢日评：“反内卷”情绪变化快、波动大-20250819

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250819: "Anti-Involution" Emotions Change Rapidly and Fluctuate Widely [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange first rose and then fell. The nickel market fundamentals are loose, and with the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - On August 18, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated within a range. The current macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, the price still needs time to return to the fundamentals and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate following the macro situation. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Information Nickel Market Futures Market - The closing prices of nickel futures contracts such as the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts all decreased compared with previous days. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel active contract was 78,139 hands (-9,510), and the open interest was 62,507 hands (-3,820). The LME 3 - month nickel price had a slight change, with the official spot price unchanged at $15,075, and the electronic - disk closing price at $15,151 (-44) [2]. Spot Market - The prices of nickel ore remained flat. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decrease in August and Indonesian production increasing, leading to nickel - iron inventory accumulation. The production of domestic electrolytic nickel increased in August, and export profitability decreased. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Nickel ore prices were stable, and port inventories increased. The production of nickel - iron and electrolytic nickel had different trends in different regions. Demand side: The production of ternary materials increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [2]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, the LME inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. Stainless Steel Market Futures Market - The stainless - steel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 121,765 hands (-22,195), and the open interest was 134,400 hands (+148) [2]. Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons (-11,600) [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: The production of stainless steel was scheduled to increase in August. Demand side: The terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - The price of high - grade ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome increased [2]. Macro - Information - The State Council Premier Li Zhang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing the need to continuously stimulate consumption potential, foster new growth points such as service consumption and new - type consumption, and take measures to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real - estate market [2].