尿素早评：供强需弱格局难改，反弹空间有限-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The rebound space of urea prices is limited due to the persistent pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. If export demand cannot make up for the shortfall, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 17 yuan/ton (0.98%), in Shanxi remained unchanged, UR05 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.39%), and UR09 increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - granules): In Henan, it increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.16%); in Hebei, by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%); in Northeast, remained unchanged; in Jiangsu, increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.75%) [1] - Upstream costs: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - Basis (Shandong spot - UR) increased by 23 yuan/ton [1] - Spread (01 - 05) increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Market Situation - The trading volume of the main contract 2601 was 2601 lots and the open interest was 183,795 lots. The opening price was 1750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1767 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1745 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1754 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1755 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - The domestic urea supply is strong, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level, and the upstream enterprise inventory is about 860,000 tons. Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season [1]