集运日报：哈马斯再次同意停火，短期情绪或有影响，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is challenging, and it is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - With the SCFIS European route index declining again and some shipping companies reducing spot freight rates, the market is cautious, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Market - On August 15 - 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [2] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, a trading volume of 28,100 lots, and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and holding losing positions is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is advisable to wait and see or participate with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Profits should be taken when the contracts rise, and after waiting for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, the subsequent direction can be judged [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]