“反内卷”下的信贷投放

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The primary task of "anti-involution" in credit issuance is to abandon the scale obsession, reduce supply-demand contradictions, and avoid the formation of capital turnover due to "abnormally low" interest rate loans [1][11] - The implementation of credit "anti-involution" faces a game between "policy guidance vs. assessment system," where the central bank's tolerance and the banks' KPI assessments play crucial roles [1][11] - The report indicates that this year may see the smallest decline in loan interest rates since the LPR reform, with corporate and housing loan rates stabilizing at 3.2% and 3.1% respectively from January to July [3][23] Summary by Sections 1. "Anti-involution" and Its Challenges - The "anti-involution" movement in credit issuance is aimed at reducing the emphasis on scale and addressing supply-demand imbalances, with a focus on avoiding low-rate loans that lead to capital inefficiencies [1][11] - The central bank maintains two bottom lines regarding credit issuance: weakening scale does not mean abandoning it, and it is cautious about the "balance sheet reduction" of state-owned banks [11][14] 2. Credit Issuance Dynamics - The report highlights three main trends in credit issuance under the "anti-involution" framework: 1. A clear tendency for "front-loading" credit issuance, with banks concentrating limited project reserves for early-year disbursement [15] 2. A growing divide in credit issuance between large and small banks, with policy banks showing higher credit issuance while smaller banks face negative growth [16][18] 3. Significant "timing effects" in credit issuance, with stronger performance at the end of the quarter and weaker performance at the beginning and middle [19][22] 3. Interest Rate Trends - The report notes that the loan interest rate decline has been minimal this year, with rates stabilizing and reflecting improved supply-demand dynamics [3][23] - Regulatory authorities are shifting focus from traditional interest rate cuts to structural monetary policy tools and fiscal subsidies to lower financing costs for the real economy [24]