华宝期货晨报成材-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price has corrected due to the drag of raw materials. Although there is still an expectation of production restrictions, the impact of macro - sentiment has decreased, and the steel price has returned to its fundamentals to some extent. Currently, the weak downstream situation persists and is difficult to improve in the short term. The raw materials are expected to fluctuate greatly in the short term and run weakly in a volatile manner [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Steel Production Data - In July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 66.8 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, with a daily output of 2.1548 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [3]. Home Appliance Retail Data - According to AVC offline market monitoring data, in July, the offline retail sales of color TVs increased by 13.6% year - on - year, refrigerators by 15.7%, washing machines by 15.7%, and air conditioners by 36.5% [3]. Steel Mill Cost and Profit Data - On August 18, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3352 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The average profit was - 76 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 25 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. Steel Price Data - On August 18, the ex - factory tax - included price of common billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan was lowered by 20, reporting 3050. The finished steel fluctuated and declined yesterday. Rebar hit a recent low, and hot - rolled coil fell slightly [3].