Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in a short - term range, and the market presents a mild recovery trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited price support. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - Yunguizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3]. Aluminum - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China was 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity was 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% compared with last week [3]. - Last week, the overall start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% week - on - week, showing a mild recovery. In some sub - fields, the start - up rate increased, while the recycled aluminum start - up rate decreased slightly. It is expected that some fields will continue to pick up in late August, and the traditional peak season may further drive demand [3]. - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 20,000 tons compared with last Monday [3]. - Macro - level interest - rate cut expectations support the price. It is expected to run in a range in the near future, and later attention should be paid to the macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250819
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-08-19 03:44