华宝期货晨报铁矿石-20250819

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced. Short - term interval operation is recommended. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore runs in the range of 775 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market price of about 101 - 105 US dollars/ton [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The rebound of foreign ore shipments exceeds expectations. Australia's shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments reach a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support on the supply side is weakening [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current daily average molten iron output is 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability rate of steel mills is high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable, while the short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron output can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction situation in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high, and the inventory at the steel mill end has continued to increase month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in the arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and the molten iron output remains high, it is expected that the inventory will generally tend to be stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]