贵金属日报：降息预期受阻，市场静待周五全球央行年会-20250819

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Cautiously Bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On Hold [9] 2. Core Views - Due to the resilience of inflation and the employment market shown in the latest US macro data, there are significant differences in the market's short-term expectations for the future interest rate cut rhythm. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is crucial, but it's difficult for Fed Chair Powell to provide clear guidance on the future interest rate path [1][8]. - Global tariff risks have not been fully cleared. India plans a tax reform to boost the economy and cope with tariff shocks, and Germany demands the US to lower tariffs on European cars [1]. - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver prices are also expected to be volatile, and the convergence logic of the gold-silver ratio provides some impetus. The Ag2508 contract may fluctuate between 9150 yuan/kilogram and 9550 yuan/kilogram [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.92 yuan/gram, closed at 777.66 yuan/gram, a 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 775.04 yuan/gram, a 0.33% decline from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9176.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9258.00 yuan/kilogram, a 0.59% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 298,755 lots, and the open interest was 350,742 lots. The night session closed at 9225 yuan/kilogram, a 0.36% decline from the afternoon close [2]. 3.2 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 18, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34%, a +1BP change from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, a -1BP change from the previous trading day [3]. 3.3 SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 163,262 lots, a 10.58% change from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 460,303 lots, a 21.19% change from the previous trading day [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 965.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15356.61 tons, an increase of 285.30 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.5 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -5.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -749.80 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.00, a 0.52% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.64, a 1.19% change from the previous trading day [6]. 3.6 Fundamental Data - On August 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 22,224 kilograms, a 4.26% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 272,182 kilograms, a -2.75% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,350 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,610 kilograms [7].