新能源及有色金属日报：西北招标氧化铝价格环比小幅下滑-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Core Viewpoints - The supply of electrolytic aluminum has a slight increase in capacity, with limited impact. Consumption is in the seasonal off - peak but shows signs of improvement, and the aluminum price correction space is limited. The long - term supply is restricted, and the consumption peak season can be expected [6]. - The bidding price of alumina in Xinjiang has decreased week - on - week. The risk of cornering the market has decreased, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The price of bauxite is difficult to rise, and the supply of alumina will continue to show a pattern of tightness in the south and looseness in the north [7][8]. - The price spread of AD2511 - AL2511 contracts and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. The spread of the 11 - contract is relatively stable, and arbitrage can still be concerned [9]. Summary by Categories Aluminum Market Data - Spot prices: On August 18, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,550 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,440 yuan/ton; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,695 yuan/ton and closed at 20,600 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 109,366 lots, and the open interest was 172,995 lots [2]. - Inventory: As of August 18, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 607,000 tons, with a change of 1.9 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 65,492 tons, with a change of 301 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, down 25 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Market Data - Spot prices: On August 18, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,215 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: The main contract of alumina opened at 3,212 yuan/ton and closed at 3,171 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 36 yuan/ton or 1.12% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 332,334 lots, and the open interest was 177,575 lots [2]. - Bidding price: The weekly bidding price of Xinjiang aluminum plants decreased by about 10 yuan/ton, and the winning bid - delivered price was 3,480 - 3,490 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy Market Data - Prices: On August 18, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 49,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,600 tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost was 20,112 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 112 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: The supply increase has limited impact, and consumption is in the off - peak but shows signs of turning to the peak season. The aluminum price correction space is limited, and the long - term supply is restricted [6]. - Alumina: The bidding price has decreased, the risk of cornering the market has decreased, the bauxite price is difficult to rise, and the supply pattern of tight south and loose north will continue [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy: The price spread and smelting profit show a seasonal repair trend, and the 11 - contract spread is stable for arbitrage [9]. Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish on aluminum, cautiously bearish on alumina, and cautiously bullish on aluminum alloy [10]. - Arbitrage: Consider positive spreads in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10].