整车管家系列：如何看待政策阶段的旺季行情

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry [12]. Core Insights - The current conditions in the automotive industry are similar to those observed from 2015 to 2017, characterized by high base pressure, policy withdrawal, and index adjustments. The "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly support demand growth in 2024-2025, with potential for a surge in new energy vehicle sales before the end of 2025, stabilizing overall volume despite high base pressures [4][11][29]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The automotive industry has experienced three major consumption policy phases in the last decade: 1) 2015-2017: Vehicle purchase tax exemption; 2) 2022: Vehicle purchase tax exemption; 3) 2024-2025: "Old-for-new" subsidy policy. The current conditions reflect similarities to the 2015-2017 period, including high base pressure and policy withdrawal [7][25]. 2015-2017 Insights - During 2015-2017, two phases of subsidy policies positively impacted sales growth, with wholesale sales increasing by 15% in 2016 and still achieving a 2% increase in 2017 despite high base pressure. The end of the purchase tax exemption in 2018 led to a decline in sales [8][35]. 2022 Special Context - The 2022 vehicle purchase tax exemption was short-lived, lasting only seven months, and was significantly affected by macroeconomic factors, resulting in a rare total year-on-year decline in sales by the end of the policy period [9]. 2024-2025 Policy Support - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has been implemented three times since 2024, with significant increases in subsidy amounts leading to a 7% year-on-year sales growth from August to December 2024, and a projected 13% growth from January to June 2025. The high base pressure expected in the latter half of 2025 may stabilize overall sales volume [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that strong sales growth, a robust new vehicle cycle, and good performance from alpha automotive companies may lead to favorable returns, similar to the 2015-2017 period. The "old-for-new" policy is anticipated to support demand growth, with potential for new energy vehicle sales to surge before the end of 2025 [11][29].