供应端影响仍在，碳酸锂盘面偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - term: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market is mainly affected by supply - side disturbances. With the current mine stoppages, it is expected that domestic lithium carbonate will start to significantly reduce inventory in September. If subsequent production cuts are substantial and last for a long time, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate may reverse, and the futures price may still have upward potential with certain consumption support [2] Market Analysis Summary - On August 18, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 88,160 yuan/ton and closed at 89,240 yuan/ton, with a 4.67% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,036,328 lots, and the open interest was 421,106 lots, up from 401,139 lots the previous day. The current basis was - 4,160 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 23,555 lots, a change of 70 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 - 86,700 yuan/ton, up 1,900 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 - 83,000 yuan/ton, also up 1,900 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,035 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream procurement enthusiasm continued to increase, and market activity enhanced. Due to the rigid demand of some downstream enterprises and the reluctance of upstream and traders to sell, the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly [1] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with the output from salt lakes and spodumene increasing and the output from mica decreasing. The weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with an increase in intermediate - link inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [1] Strategy Summary - The lithium carbonate futures market is mainly affected by supply - side disturbances. The mining end in Jiangxi is greatly affected, with large factories having stopped production and the resumption progress unknown. Other mines are required to complete relevant report writing by September 30, and the subsequent impact on production is uncertain. In addition, a lithium salt production enterprise in Qinghai may face the possibility of shutdown due to mining license issues. Based on the current mine stoppages, it is expected that domestic lithium carbonate will start to significantly reduce inventory from September. If subsequent production cuts are large and last for a long time, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate may change, and the futures price may still have upward potential with certain consumption support [2]