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持续上涨驱动不足,板块整体延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-19 05:03

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Report Core Views - The cotton market has limited upward momentum and will likely continue to fluctuate. Although the global supply - demand pattern has shifted to a tighter one, there are doubts about the supply reduction, and the downstream demand is weak. In the medium - term, new cotton listings may suppress prices [1][2] - The sugar market will mainly follow the trend of raw sugar. In the short - term, it will be range - bound due to domestic spot pressure, but there may be a tail - end rally in the fourth quarter [4][6] - The pulp market has no obvious improvement in fundamentals and lacks positive drivers. It is expected to continue low - level fluctuations in the short term [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Cotton 2601 futures closed at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,082 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,234 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area was 56.311 million mu, a decrease of 5.117 million mu, and the harvest area was 44.65 million mu, a decrease of 7.928 million mu, with an abandonment rate of 20.7%, up 6.3 percentage points [1] - India's 2023/24 cotton production was expected to be 5.72 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons (+3.4%), and imports were expected to be 258,000 tons, a decrease of about 40,000 tons (-13.1%). The ending inventory increased by 153,000 tons to 666,000 tons (+29.8%) [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending inventory made the supply - demand pattern tighter, but the lack of abnormal weather in the US cotton - growing areas and other major producing countries led to doubts about the tight pattern, and ICE cotton fluctuated [2] - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. The rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton in July, low expected imports in the third quarter, and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas supported cotton prices in the short term. However, weak downstream demand limited the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listings may suppress prices [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support cotton prices, but potential regulatory policies and the lack of long - term upward drivers limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Sugar 2601 futures closed at 5,672 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar to meet domestic demand and stabilize prices [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian bi - weekly report showed a slight decrease in sugarcane crushing and sugar production but a record - high sugar - making ratio, leading to a decline in raw sugar futures. However, concerns about sugarcane quality and downward revisions of Brazilian production estimates limited the decline [5][6] - In the domestic market, the slowdown in domestic sugar sales, high import profits, and large - scale arrival of imported sugar increased spot pressure. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new crushing season may lead to a rally in the fourth quarter [6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on changes in Brazilian production estimates [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Pulp 2511 futures closed at 5,252 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] - The import pulp spot market was generally stable, with individual price adjustments [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year, especially for hardwood pulp. With the commissioning of domestic pulp production capacity in the second half of the year, the import volume is expected to decline. However, slow port de - stocking and high inventory levels mean that supply pressure remains, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [8] - Demand: Weak pulp consumption in Europe and the US, increasing inventory pressure on global pulp mills, and a traditional off - season in the domestic market led to weak demand. Low effective terminal demand, low paper mill operating rates, and over - capacity in the paper industry limited demand improvement [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. With no obvious improvement in the pulp market fundamentals, prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [9]