Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [34]. Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in sales and investment, with July sales area at 57.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, marking the lowest level since 2009 [2][9]. - The total investment in real estate development in July was 692.2 billion yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating compared to June [8][12]. - The new construction area in July was 48.42 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%, also reflecting a worsening trend [8][20]. - The current inventory pressure remains high, with existing housing inventory accounting for 25% of the total inventory, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Performance - July's sales area was 57.09 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 532.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.1% [2][13]. - The average selling price of commercial housing in July was 9,327 yuan per square meter, down 6.7% year-on-year [11]. - Sales performance varied by region, with eastern and western regions showing significant declines [2][18]. 2. Inventory Situation - As of the end of July, the broad inventory of residential properties was 1.62 billion square meters, with a depletion cycle of 25.2 months [3]. - The existing housing inventory was approximately 405 million square meters, with a depletion cycle of 19.7 months [3]. 3. Investment and Construction - The total investment in real estate development in July was 692.2 billion yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year, with residential development investment at 543.8 billion yuan, down 14.1% [8][12]. - New construction area in July was 48.42 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.4% [20]. 4. Developer Financing - In July, the funds available to real estate companies decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened external financing [5]. - The total funds available from January to July amounted to 5.73 trillion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year [5]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, and those benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [8].
房地产行业2025年7月统计局数据点评：单月销售与投资降幅进一步扩大，开竣工明显走弱
Bank of China Securities·2025-08-19 05:11