铜周报：宏观不确定性较高，铜价延续震荡-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report points out that due to high macro - uncertainty, copper prices continue to fluctuate. The international situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, has high uncertainty, leading to cautious market sentiment. Technically, copper prices are in high - level oscillations, with short - term possible continuation of the trend and poor medium - term fundamentals. The supply - demand situation shows high inventories and insufficient demand, resulting in weak spot demand [1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The US - Russia talks on Saturday morning had no clear progress. The US dollar fell and the euro rose on Friday, with most non - ferrous metals dropping at night, led by aluminum. European and Ukrainian leaders went to the US, increasing international situation uncertainty. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose slightly during the day, and all non - ferrous metals declined. Shanghai copper, international copper, and LME copper fell, while domestic spot copper rose [1]. - The closing price of Shanghai copper was 78,950, and the spot price was 79,430. The intraday high of Shanghai copper was followed by a decline, with a spot premium of 480 points. The spot basis premium rose to 225 points, and spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount widened to -$94 this week, indicating weak external spot demand [1]. Inventory and Demand - This week, the inventories of US copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper all increased, showing insufficient spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium rose slightly to $48.5, indicating weak domestic spot demand [1]. - The LME - Shanghai copper ratio remained at 8.13, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased to 207 points, with the external price - to - ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1]. Technical Analysis - LME copper oscillated and fell slightly, trading around $9,744. Shanghai copper rose first and then fell, closing at 78,950, with a neutral technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Market Indicators | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (USD/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 12 | 7.1856 | 250 | 47 | | - 83 | 8.13 | | Aug 13 | 7.1816 | 180 | 47 | | - 87 | 8.10 | | Aug 14 | 7.1822 | 180 | 47 | | - 79 | 8.07 | | Aug 15 | 7.1890 | 210 | 48.5 | | - 89 | 8.10 | | Aug 18 | 7.1837 | 480 | 48.5 | | - 94 | 8.13 | [3]