Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The decline in the absolute price center has not stimulated the improvement of the spot market, and downstream buyers remain on the sidelines. The discount in the Guangdong region has further widened. The import TC is still rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories. The overall upward trend remains unchanged. The smelting profit of the industry remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm persists. The consumption off-season remains strong and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the consumption peak season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$5.22/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, with a premium of -90 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, with a premium of -60 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On August 18, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,410 yuan/ton and closed at 22,340 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,217 lots, and the open interest was 69,630 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,445 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,310 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 135,400 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 75,850 tons, a decrease of 475 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - The decline in zinc prices has not improved the spot market, and downstream buyers remain on the sidelines. The import TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories. The smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm persists. The consumption off-season remains strong and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the consumption peak season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]
新能源及有色金属日报：价格下行现货市场仍未见好转-20250819
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-19 05:12