集运日报：哈马斯再次同意停火，短期情绪或有影响，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Given the short - term market fluctuations, it is not advisable to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The market may experience wide - range fluctuations when the basis converges, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Index - On August 18, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8; the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In the US in July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7); the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53); the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, the trading volume was 28,100 lots, and the open interest was 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] - The SCFIS European route index declined again, and some liner companies continued to lower spot freight rates. The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 of the 2510 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [4] - Long - term strategy: It is advisable to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after the price stabilizes [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]