铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, the upcoming tri - party meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine and the speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting are the focuses. The A - share market hit a new high in the past decade, and the bond market was under pressure. [2][3] - Precious metals: The prices of gold and silver are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits Fed policy guidance and the development of the US - Europe - Russia - Ukraine relations. [4][5] - Copper: The price of copper is expected to maintain a high - range oscillation in the short term, with the market focusing on Powell's stance and the tight supply of copper concentrates providing cost support. [6][7] - Aluminum: The price of aluminum is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner due to the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and weak consumption in the off - season. [8] - Alumina: The supply pressure of alumina is expected to increase, and the futures price may move down with a fluctuating center. [10] - Zinc: The zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile due to continuous inventory accumulation and the strengthening of the US dollar. [11] - Lead: The lead price is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation due to weak supply and demand and high inventory. [12] - Tin: The tin price is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation due to the weak supply and demand situation. [13][14] - Industrial silicon: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be volatile, with the supply side showing a marginal relaxation and the demand side having limited transactions. [15][16] - Lithium carbonate: The lithium price may still rise slightly driven by sentiment, but the increase is expected to be limited. [17][18] - Nickel: The nickel price is expected to be volatile, with the market paying attention to the review progress of illegal nickel mines in Indonesia. [19] - Crude oil: The oil price is expected to remain volatile as the market needs to pay attention to the geopolitical situation. [20] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The Dalian soybean meal may be strong in a volatile manner, with the US soybean having a good growth condition and the domestic near - term supply being sufficient. [21][22] - Palm oil: The palm oil may be strong in a volatile manner, with the export demand being strong and the production increase narrowing. [24][25] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: After the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump called Putin to arrange a tri - party meeting. The market was calm, with the US dollar index rising to 98.1, the 10Y US Treasury yield rising to 4.33%, and the stock and commodity markets showing different trends. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market broke through the 2021 high of 3731 points, with the trading volume reaching 2.81 trillion yuan. The bond market was under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields rose to 1.77% and 2.037% respectively. [3] 3.1.2 Precious Metals - On Monday, COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce. The market is waiting for Fed policy guidance and the development of the US - Europe - Russia - Ukraine relations. [4] 3.1.3 Copper - On Monday, the Shanghai copper main contract oscillated around 79000, and the LME copper fell slightly at night. The market is concerned about Powell's speech, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut has dropped to 84.6%. China's copper imports in July were 480,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. [6] 3.1.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,595 yuan/ton, down 0.63%, and the LME aluminum closed at $2588.5 per ton, down 0.56%. The electrolytic aluminum inventory increased, and the market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. [8] 3.1.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 3171 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the inventory has risen significantly. [9][10] 3.1.6 Zinc - On Monday, the Shanghai zinc main contract was weak and volatile, and the LME zinc was also weak. The social inventory increased to 135,400 tons, and the zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile. [11] 3.1.7 Lead - On Monday, the Shanghai lead main contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and the LME lead was weak. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the lead price is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation due to weak supply and demand. [12] 3.1.8 Tin - On Monday, the Shanghai tin main contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and the LME tin was also narrow - range oscillating. The supply and demand are both weak, and the tin price is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation. [13][14] 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the industrial silicon main contract was weakly oscillating. The supply side showed a marginal relaxation, and the demand side had limited transactions. The price is expected to be volatile. [15][16] 3.1.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate opened higher and oscillated. The raw material prices rose, but the real - demand increment was less than the supply. The lithium price may rise slightly driven by sentiment, but the increase is limited. [17][18] 3.1.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price oscillated. The nickel ore supply is expected to be loose, and the stainless - steel market is weak. The market is concerned about the review of illegal nickel mines in Indonesia. [19] 3.1.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, the crude oil oscillated. The tri - party meeting released positive signals, but the market still worried about the sanctions on Russian oil. The oil price is expected to remain volatile. [20] 3.1.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose. The US soybean had a good growth condition, and the Dalian soybean meal may be strong in a volatile manner. [21][22] 3.1.14 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil futures rose. The Malaysian palm oil production increase in the first half of August narrowed, and the export demand was good. The palm oil may be strong in a volatile manner. [24][25] 3.2 Yesterday's Main Futures Market Closing Data - The data shows the closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts, including metals, agricultural products, and energy products. [26][29] 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The data presents the price changes, inventory changes, and other indicators of various industrial products from August 15 to August 18, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and agricultural products. [30][32][34]