7月金融数据点评：提振内需的重要性上升

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In July, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year, but a decrease of 3.04 trillion yuan compared to June, falling short of the expected 1.41 trillion yuan[2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in July was 9.0%, slightly below the expected 9.08%[2] - New RMB loans in July were -426.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year-on-year and a drop of 2.79 trillion yuan from June[2] Group 2: Financing Structure and Trends - Government bond financing and direct financing supported new social financing, with notable increases in government bonds, corporate bonds, stock financing, and trust loans compared to the previous year[2] - The proportion of government bonds in the financing structure increased by 0.24 percentage points from June, while RMB loans decreased by 0.25 percentage points[2] - M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year in July, while M1 and M0 grew by 5.6% and 11.8%, respectively[2] Group 3: Deposit and Loan Dynamics - In July, new deposits totaled 500 billion yuan, with significant increases in non-bank deposits (2.14 trillion yuan) and fiscal deposits (770 billion yuan), while corporate and resident deposits decreased by 1.46 trillion yuan and 1.11 trillion yuan, respectively[2] - New loans were weak, with a total decrease of 500 billion yuan, primarily driven by declines in medium and long-term loans and residential loans[2] - The decline in residential medium and long-term loans indicates weakening demand in the real estate market, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 billion yuan[2] Group 4: Policy Implications and Economic Outlook - The importance of boosting domestic demand has increased, with government policies focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations[2] - The report suggests that internal demand will be a key driver for economic growth in the medium to long term, alongside potential fiscal and monetary policy adjustments[2] - Risks include a potential rise in global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S., and complex international situations[2]