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房地产行业报告（2025.08.11-2025.08.17）：新房成交走弱，收储有望提速
China Post Securities·2025-08-19 06:12

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that new home sales in China have weakened, with a total sales area of 516 million square meters from January to July, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.0%. The sales value reached 4.96 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year. The decline in sales has narrowed compared to the same period last year, suggesting the real estate market is stabilizing [5][6] - Real estate development investment from January to July was 535.8 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, with expectations for policy support to accelerate land acquisition [5] - The report highlights that the average transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities was 123.11 million square meters last week, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.4% [6][14] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New home sales and inventory: The cumulative new home sales area in 30 major cities was 5622.43 million square meters, down 4.4% year-on-year. The average transaction area for new homes in the last four weeks was 140.23 million square meters, down 14.5% year-on-year [6][14] - Second-hand home transactions: The cumulative area of second-hand home transactions in 20 cities was 7180.37 million square meters, up 15.7% year-on-year. The average transaction area in the last four weeks was 196.72 million square meters, down 0.1% year-on-year [19][21] - Land market transactions: In the last week, 69 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 17 plots sold. The average floor price for residential land was 7627.25 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 10.72% [29][32] 2. Market Review - The A-share real estate index rose by 3.94% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.37%. The real estate index outperformed the CSI 300 by 1.56 percentage points [33][35] - Key A-share real estate stocks with significant gains included Wantong Development (+39.45%) and Quzhou Development (+33.01%) [37]