Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU is cautiously bullish, NR is neutral, and BR is neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent support for natural rubber comes from the macro - environment and upstream cost. With continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas this week, raw material prices are expected to remain firm, but will fall after the rain stops. The overall supply pressure is small due to low domestic arrivals, but arrivals are expected to increase at the end of August. The downstream tire operating rates are divided, with semi - steel tire operating rates falling and all - steel tire operating rates rising. Attention should be paid to tire manufacturers' stocking willingness before the traditional peak demand season [4] - For BR, the overall supply is expected to increase this week as some upstream devices restart and some undergo short - term maintenance. The downstream tire operating rates are divided, and the weakening of semi - steel tire operating rates has a more obvious impact on BR, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern. Upstream butadiene prices are expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,820 yuan/ton, a change of - 85 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the Thai 20 - gauge standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,805 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the Indonesian 20 - gauge standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, a change of + 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton, a change of + 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 634,000 tons, a 3.4% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, a nearly 42% increase from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 18, 2025, the RU basis was - 970 yuan/ton (+ 35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,220 yuan/ton (- 35), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,426 yuan/ton (+ 645.59), the NR basis was 224.00 yuan/ton (- 20.00); whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 50), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,805 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was 0 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,300 yuan/ton (- 150) [3] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.28 Thai baht/kg (- 1.87), Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 49.45 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35), the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+ 2.56%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (- 0.60%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,277,859 tons (- 10,990.00), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (- 3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+ 3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+ 4,234) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 18, 2025, the BR basis was - 100 yuan/ton (+ 215), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,091 yuan/ton (+ 56) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.52% (- 3.65%) [4] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,990 tons (- 300), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 23,450 tons (- 700) [4]
化工日报：青岛港口库存继续下降，降幅缩窄-20250819
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-19 07:06