China Post Securities·2025-08-19 07:13Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The agricultural sector index decreased by 0.14%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industries, while the broader market indices, such as the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite, increased by 2.37% and 1.70% respectively [12][14] - The report highlights a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price as of August 18 being 13.55 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.21 CNY/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [5][16] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to reducing production capacity in the pig farming sector to stabilize prices, with expectations of increased supply pressure in the latter half of 2025 [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector underperformed the market, with a 0.14% decline in the agricultural index, while the broader indices saw gains [12][14] - The pig farming and related feed sectors experienced the largest declines due to falling pig prices [14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Farming - The average pig price has been declining, with significant supply but weak demand leading to a challenging market environment [5][16] - As of August 15, self-breeding pig farmers reported an average profit of 28 CNY per head, down 17 CNY from the previous week, while external pig purchases resulted in a loss of 157 CNY per head [17] - The government is enforcing production capacity reduction policies, which are expected to accelerate in the future [18] Broiler Chicken - As of August 15, the price of broiler chicken chicks rose to 3.80 CNY per chick, while the price of broiler chickens was 3.52 CNY per jin, showing a slight decline [31] - The supply of chicks is tight due to reduced breeding and increased culling, leading to a potential slowdown in chick price increases [31] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have rebounded slightly, with white sugar priced at 6000 CNY/ton as of August 15, an increase of 30 CNY/ton [34] - Soybean prices have seen a minor increase, with the landed price of Brazilian soybeans at 4040 CNY/ton, up 1.8% [34] - Corn prices have slightly decreased, with an average price of 2356 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY from the previous week [34]