美国关税政策梳理及对铜价影响分析-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff policies have three main impacts on copper prices: reshaping the global trade environment and hindering economic development and copper demand; the 232 copper tariff mainly affects semi - finished copper product imports and exports, with limited impact on the domestic copper industry; and the tariff policies may lead to a weaker US dollar index, which could boost copper prices due to copper's financial attributes [1][31]. - In the long run, although the US may impose phased tariffs on refined copper starting from 2027, the actual implementation may fall short of expectations, and the impact is still far off [2][31]. - Currently, copper pricing has returned to fundamentals. With tight copper concentrate supply, high domestic smelter output, and low domestic copper inventories, combined with the expectation of increased demand in the peak season, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile [31][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. US Tariff Policy Review (1) Reciprocal Tariffs - In April, Trump imposed a 10% "benchmark tariff" on all countries and higher "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with large trade surpluses with the US. The reasons include the need for tariff revenue to offset tax cuts and using tariffs as a bargaining chip [6]. - The China - US tariff game has been intense, with multiple rounds of tariff increases and subsequent suspensions of some tariffs [6][7]. (2) 232 Copper Tariffs - On July 30, the US 232 copper tariff was announced, imposing a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, while exempting copper input materials and copper scrap. The White House also requires 25% of high - quality copper scrap and primary copper products to be sold domestically [8]. - Before the tariff implementation, market concerns led to increased demand for copper futures and a rise in copper prices. After the tariff was implemented, the exemption of refined copper caused a sharp drop in copper futures prices [9][10]. II. Analysis of the Impact of US Tariffs on Copper Prices (1) Tariff Policies Reshape the Global Trade Pattern, Hindering Economic Development and Copper Demand - The US tariff policies disrupt economic globalization, negatively affecting global economic growth. In 2025, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow, and copper consumption may be impacted [14][16]. (2) The 232 Copper Tariff Exempts Refined Copper, and the Impact of Copper Product Tariffs is Limited - The proportion of China's copper product exports to the US is small. The tariff aims to reshape the US copper industry chain. The exemption of refined copper benefits copper - smelting and copper - producing countries. The tariff may reduce the US demand for imported copper products and increase domestic processing capacity [17][19]. - The high COMEX copper inventory in the US can meet domestic demand, and the probability of copper flowing back to the Eurasian market is small. The impact on Shanghai copper is limited due to the closed import window and low domestic copper inventories [22][24]. (3) Tariffs Affect the Weakening of the US Dollar Index, and Copper's Financial Attributes May Boost Copper Prices - Copper prices are negatively correlated with the US dollar index. Trump's tariff policies initially pushed the US dollar to strengthen but later led to its weakening. The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the high probability of a September interest rate cut may further weaken the US dollar and boost copper prices [27][29]. III. Summary and Outlook - The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies remains. The impact on copper prices is mainly in three aspects as mentioned above. In the long run, the implementation of refined copper tariffs may be less than expected [30][31]. - With the improvement of the macro - environment, copper pricing has returned to fundamentals. Supported by fundamentals and the expectation of interest rate cuts, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile [31][33].