Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a USDA monthly supply and demand data tracking for August 2025, focusing on cotton, soybeans, and corn, prepared by the Agricultural Products Division of Holly Futures [1] Group 2: Cotton Supply and Demand Global - Beginning stocks are 75.05 million bales, production is 116.62 million bales, imports are 43.58 million bales, consumption is 117.99 million bales, exports are 43.59 million bales, and ending stocks are 73.91 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 1.73 million bales, production by 1.8 million bales, imports by 1.1 million bales, consumption by 0.13 million bales, exports by 1.1 million bales, and ending stocks by 3.41 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 3.04 million bales, production decreased by 1.48 million bales, imports increased by 2.07 million bales, consumption increased by 1.42 million bales, exports increased by 1.7 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 0.54 million bales [3] China - Beginning stocks are 35.79 million bales, production is 31.5 million bales, imports are 5.3 million bales, consumption is 37.5 million bales, exports are 0.08 million bales, and ending stocks are 35.02 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 1.05 million bales, production increased by 0.5 million bales, imports decreased by 0.5 million bales, consumption increased by 1 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 2.05 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 0.925 million bales, production decreased by 0.5 million bales, imports increased by 0.15 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.5 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 0.775 million bales [3] United States - Beginning stocks are 4 million bales, production is 13.21 million bales, imports are 0.01 million bales, consumption is 1.7 million bales, exports are 12 million bales, and ending stocks are 3.6 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.1 million bales, production decreased by 1.39 million bales, imports remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports decreased by 0.5 million bales, and ending stocks decreased by 1 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.85 million bales, production decreased by 1.199 million bales, imports increased by 0.002 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.063 million bales, exports increased by 0.1 million bales, and ending stocks decreased by 0.4 million bales [3] India - Beginning stocks are 9.85 million bales, production is 23.5 million bales, imports are 2.9 million bales, consumption is 25 million bales, exports are 1 million bales, and ending stocks are 10.25 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 0.1 million bales, production remained unchanged, imports decreased by 0.1 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.5 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks increased by 0.5 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.55 million bales, production decreased by 0.5 million bales, imports decreased by 0.05 million bales, consumption increased by 0.5 million bales, exports decreased by 0.4 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 0.4 million bales [3] Group 3: Soybean Supply and Demand - The soybean data is bullish. US soybean production and ending stocks are decreased due to the decrease in beginning stocks. The production of Brazil and Argentina in South America remains unchanged, and the global ending stocks are slightly decreased [4] Global - Beginning stocks are 125.19 million tons, production is 426.39 million tons, imports are 185.86 million tons, crushing is 367.71 million tons, consumption is 425.1 million tons, exports are 187.44 million tons, and ending stocks are 124.9 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 0.06%, production decreased by 0.30%, imports decreased by 0.11%, crushing remained unchanged, consumption decreased by 0.02%, exports decreased by 0.10%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.93%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 8.57%, production increased by 0.57%, imports increased by 4.22%, crushing increased by 3.68%, consumption increased by 3.51%, exports increased by 3.13%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.23% [4] United States - Beginning stocks are 8.985 million tons, production is 116.815 million tons, imports are 0.544 million tons, crushing is 69.127 million tons, consumption is 72.052 million tons, exports are 46.402 million tons, and ending stocks are 7.89 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 5.67%, production decreased by 0.98%, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption decreased by 0.10%, exports decreased by 2.30%, and ending stocks decreased by 6.52%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 3.58%, production decreased by 1.70%, imports decreased by 20.00%, crushing increased by 4.53%, consumption increased by 4.69%, exports decreased by 9.07%, and ending stocks decreased by 12.19% [4] China - Beginning stocks are 43.48 million tons, production is 21 million tons, imports are 112 million tons, crushing is 108 million tons, consumption is 133 million tons, exports are 0.1 million tons, and ending stocks are 43.38 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.39%, production increased by 1.69%, imports increased by 5.16%, crushing increased by 4.85%, consumption increased by 4.81%, exports increased by 25.00%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.23% [4] Brazil - Beginning stocks are 36.111 million tons, production is 175 million tons, imports are 0.15 million tons, crushing is 58 million tons, consumption is 62.3 million tons, exports are 112 million tons, and ending stocks are 36.961 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 21.34%, production increased by 3.55%, imports decreased by 72.73%, crushing increased by 1.75%, consumption increased by 1.96%, exports increased by 9.70%, and ending stocks increased by 2.35% [4] Argentina - Beginning stocks are 25.247 million tons, production is 48.5 million tons, imports are 7.2 million tons, crushing is 43 million tons, consumption is 50.5 million tons, exports are 5.8 million tons, and ending stocks are 24.647 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 2.02%, production remained unchanged, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports increased by 16.00%, and ending stocks decreased by 1.20%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 4.99%, production decreased by 4.72%, imports increased by 5.88%, crushing increased by 0.94%, consumption increased by 0.20%, exports decreased by 4.92%, and ending stocks decreased by 2.38% [4] Paraguay - Beginning stocks are 0.431 million tons, production is 11 million tons, imports are 0.02 million tons, crushing is 3.1 million tons, consumption is 3.3 million tons, exports are 7.7 million tons, and ending stocks are 0.451 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 50.70%, production increased by 7.84%, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption increased by 0.76%, exports increased by 13.24%, and ending stocks increased by 4.64% [4] Group 4: Corn Supply and Demand - The corn data is bearish. US corn production and ending stocks are significantly increased. The production of Brazil and Argentina in South America remains unchanged, and the global ending stocks are increased [5] Global - Beginning stocks are 283.11 million tons, production is 1288.58 million tons, imports are 192.16 million tons, consumption is 1289.15 million tons, exports are 200.86 million tons, and ending stocks are 282.54 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.38%, production increased by 1.97%, imports increased by 2.34%, consumption increased by 1.05%, exports increased by 2.58%, and ending stocks increased by 3.84%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 10.33%, production increased by 5.10%, imports increased by 4.66%, consumption increased by 2.43%, exports increased by 3.73%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.20% [5] United States - Beginning stocks are 33.152 million tons, production is 425.257 million tons, imports are 0.635 million tons, consumption is 332.247 million tons, exports are 73.028 million tons, and ending stocks are 53.769 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 2.61%, production increased by 6.60%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 2.71%, exports increased by 7.48%, and ending stocks increased by 27.51%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 25.99%, production increased by 12.61%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 4.39%, exports increased by 1.95%, and ending stocks increased by 62.19% [5] China - Beginning stocks are 194.183 million tons, production is 295 million tons, imports are 10 million tons, consumption is 321 million tons, exports are 0.02 million tons, and ending stocks are 178.163 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.51%, production remained unchanged, imports remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 0.56%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 8.09%, production increased by 0.03%, imports increased by 150.00%, consumption increased by 1.58%, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 8.25% [5] Brazil - Beginning stocks are 7.988 million tons, production is 131 million tons, imports are 1.6 million tons, consumption is 94 million tons, exports are 43 million tons, and ending stocks are 3.588 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 5.89%, production decreased by 0.76%, imports increased by 6.67%, consumption increased by 3.30%, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 55.08% [5] Argentina - Beginning stocks are 2.783 million tons, production is 53 million tons, imports are 0.005 million tons, consumption is 15.6 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and ending stocks are 3.188 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 12.31%, production increased by 6.00%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 2.63%, exports increased by 7.25%, and ending stocks increased by 14.55% [5] Ukraine - Beginning stocks are 0.762 million tons, production is 32 million tons, imports are 0.01 million tons, consumption is 6.325 million tons, exports are 25.5 million tons, and ending stocks are 0.947 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 145.16%, production increased by 4.92%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 1.61%, exports increased by 6.25%, and ending stocks increased by 58.33%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 18.69%, production increased by 19.40%, imports decreased by 50.00%, consumption increased by 10.96%, exports increased by 21.43%, and ending stocks increased by 24.28% [5]
USDA月度供需数据跟踪-20250819
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-08-19 07:34