Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: August 19, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Core Views - The overall heat of the production end is rising, with the operating rates of blast furnaces and semi-steel tires decreasing, and those of coke ovens, asphalt, PX, PTA, and all-steel tires increasing [2][29] - The real estate market is weakening marginally, with both the transaction volume of commercial housing and the land supply area decreasing [2][29] - The price trend is diverging. Crude oil, non-ferrous metals, and rebar prices are decreasing, while coking coal prices are slightly increasing. Agricultural product prices are generally rising, at the beginning of the seasonal upward trend, with pork and fruit prices decreasing and egg and vegetable prices increasing [2][29] - Shipping indices are declining, including SCFI, CCFI, and BDI, indicating potential pressure on global foreign trade. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of a new round of stable growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][29] Production - Coke ovens: The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.38 pct. On the week of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens was 74.13%, up 0.38 pct from the previous week [7] - Blast furnaces: The operating rate decreased by 0.16 pct. On the week of August 15, the operating rate of blast furnaces was 83.59%, down 0.16 pct from the previous week [7] - Rebar: The output decreased by 0.73 tons. On the week of August 15, the output of rebar was 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 4.06 tons [7] - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increased by 1.2 pct. On the week of August 13, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt was 32.9%, up 1.2 pct from the previous week [7] - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PX increased by 2.28 pct, and that of PTA increased by 1.91 pct. On August 14, the operating rate of PX was 84.63%, up 2.28 pct from the previous week, and the operating rate of PTA was 76.7%, up 1.91 pct from the previous week [7] - All-steel tires: The operating rate increased by 2.09 pct. On the week of August 14, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 63.09%, up 2.09 pct from the previous week [8] - Semi-steel tires: The operating rate decreased by 2.28 pct. On the week of August 14, the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72.07%, down 2.28 pct from the previous week [8] Demand - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased marginally, and the inventory-to-sales ratio increased. The land supply area decreased, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreased. On the week of August 10, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 129.45 million square meters, down 35.64 million square meters from the previous week. The inventory-to-sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities was 119.01, up 3.95 from the previous week. The land supply area in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 1168.53 million square meters, down 214.86 million square meters from the previous week. The transaction premium rate of residential land in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 2.45%, down 1.49 pct from the previous week [12] - Movie box office: It decreased by 137 million yuan. On the week of August 10, the total box office revenue of movies in China was 1615.24 million yuan, down 137.3286 million yuan from the previous week [12] - Automobiles: The daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 52,000 units, and the daily average wholesale sales decreased by 132,000 units. On the week of August 10, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars were 45,207 units, down 52,284 units from the previous week, and the daily average wholesale sales were 40,253 units, down 131,503 units from the previous week [14] - Shipping indices: SCFI decreased by 1.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.62%, and BDI decreased by 0.34%. On the week of August 15, SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous week. CCFI was 1193.34 points, down 7.39 points from the previous week. BDI was 2044 points, down 7 points from the previous week [17] Prices - Energy: The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.11% to $65.85 per barrel. On August 15, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $65.85 per barrel, down $0.74 per barrel from the previous week [19] - Coking coal: The futures price increased by 0.33% to 1223.5 yuan per ton. On August 15, the settlement price of coking coal futures was 1223.5 yuan per ton, up 4 yuan per ton from the previous week [19] - Metals: The futures prices of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc changed by -0.08%, -0.46%, and -1.32% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 1.0%. On August 15, the closing price of LME copper futures was $9760 per ton, down $8 per ton from the previous week. The closing price of LME aluminum futures was $2603 per ton, down $12 per ton from the previous week. The closing price of LME zinc futures was $2796.5 per ton, down $37.5 per ton from the previous week. The settlement price of domestic rebar futures was 3183 yuan per ton, down 32 yuan per ton from the previous week [20] - Agricultural products: The overall price rebounded, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increasing by 0.82%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -1.76%, +1.07%, +2.37%, and -1.85% respectively compared with the previous week. On August 15, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was 114.88, up 0.94 from a week ago. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.05 yuan per kilogram, down 0.36 yuan per kilogram from a week ago. The average wholesale price of eggs was 7.59 yuan per kilogram, up 0.08 yuan per kilogram from a week ago. The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was 4.75 yuan per kilogram, up 0.11 yuan per kilogram from a week ago. The average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits was 6.91 yuan per kilogram, down 0.13 yuan per kilogram from a week ago [22][23] Logistics - Subway passenger volume: It increased in Beijing and decreased in Shanghai. On August 15, the seven-day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing was 10.5208 million person-times, up 283,300 person-times from the previous week. The seven-day moving average of subway passenger volume in Shanghai was 10.6857 million person-times, down 62,900 person-times from the previous week [25] - Flight volume: Domestic flight volume increased, while international flight volume decreased. On August 16, the seven-day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume was 14,822.57 flights, up 204 flights from the previous week. The seven-day moving average of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume was 377.57 flights, down 9.14 flights from the previous week. The seven-day moving average of international flight volume was 1891.29 flights, down 4.86 flights from the previous week [27] - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities increased. On August 16, the seven-day moving average of the peak congestion index in first-tier cities was 1.68, up 0.01 from the previous week [27]
高频数据跟踪：生产热度回升，原油金属价格下降
China Post Securities·2025-08-19 08:20