Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-19 08:54Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - For the corn market, the USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bearish, causing international corn prices to decline. In the domestic market, factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn in the Northeast, the release of old - stock corn, good growth of new - season corn, and weak market sentiment lead to a weak trend in the corn market, suggesting a bearish approach [2]. - For the corn starch market, with the resumption of operations of previously - overhauled enterprises, the industry's operating rate has increased, leading to greater supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a clear oversupply situation. The market shows a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2170 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 74 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is 2563 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures holdings of active contracts: 29682 hands for yellow corn, 925944 hands for corn starch; net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 93342 hands for corn starch and - 22833 hands for corn [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 113481 hands for yellow corn, 7450 hands for corn starch [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 321 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 0.75 cents/bushel; total CBOT corn positions are 406.5 (weekly), and non - commercial net long positions are - 25206 (weekly) [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2391.37 yuan/ton, down 2.55 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.47 yuan/ton, up 1.42 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 398.93 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 35.12 million tons, down 0.25 million tons [2]. - The predicted yields of corn in Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports are 75.1 million tons, down 14.5 million tons; deep - processing corn inventories are 340.2 million tons, down 24.1 million tons [2]. - Corn inventories at northern ports are 247 million tons, down 22 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.2 million tons, up 1.2 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 thousand tons, down 13.28 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 117 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 61 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processing consumption of corn is 114.06 million tons, down 2.4 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 55.9%, up 2.07% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.89%, down 3.48%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.89%, down 1.73% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.6%, down 11.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.6%, down 11.64% [2]. Industry News - The Midwest crop inspection activity of the US Professional Farmers (ProFarmer) organization reported crop growth problems on the first day, including soil cracking and lack of surface soil moisture [2]. - In July 2025, China's corn imports were 6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10 million tons (62.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 103 million tons (94.9%) [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows that the estimated sown area of US corn in the 2025/26 season is increased from 95.2 million acres in July to 97.3 million acres, and the yield per acre is increased from 181 bushels/acre to 188.8 bushels/acre [2].