降息预期与“反内卷”情绪反复，趋势难成

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Weekly Report - Repeated Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts and "Anti - involution" Sentiment, Difficult to Form a Trend [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Author: Wu Jinheng from Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] Investment Ratings - Nickel: The investment strategy is to wait and see, with an expected operating range of 116,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [3][88] - Stainless Steel: The investment strategy is to wait and see, with an expected operating range of 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton [4][113] Core Views - Nickel: With high pure nickel production, loose supply - demand, and repeated expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3][88] - Stainless Steel: Although production has rebounded, demand is average, and inventory pressure remains. However, with strong cost support and the influence of "anti - involution" sentiment, the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [4][113] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated downward with a weekly decline of 0.46%, trading volume reaching 488,300 lots (+23,600), and open interest at 96,900 lots (-12,700). LME nickel rose 0.26% weekly, with trading volume at 28,400 lots (+2,700). The basis premium was 1,190 yuan/ton [10][12] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged. In June, the Philippines' nickel - ore exports increased, and China's imports reached 4.35 million tons, up 10.7% month - on - month and down 7.2% year - on - year. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased by 100,600 tons, and port inventory increased by 60,000 wet tons [18][23][25] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose 7 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron rose 20 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron compared to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel narrowed. In June, China's nickel - iron imports were 1.041 million tons, up 22.8% month - on - month and 50.0% year - on - year, and imports in July were expected to decline. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, and the operating rate increased. In August, the operating rate and production of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those in Indonesia increased slightly. Nickel iron had a slight inventory reduction [30][34][43] 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In August, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased, the export profit of electrolytic nickel decreased, and in June, both imports and exports of electrolytic nickel declined [47][51][54] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In August, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel increased. In June, stainless - steel exports decreased by 10.6% month - on - month and 13.9% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 12.5% month - on - month and 16.6% year - on - year. Exports and imports were expected to decline in July [58][62][102] 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel fell, the price of nickel sulfate rose, and the premium of nickel sulfate over pure nickel widened. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely small. In August, the production schedules of ternary precursors and ternary materials increased, while that of nickel sulfate decreased. In July, the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.243 million units, down 2.0% month - on - month and up 26.3% year - on - year, and sales were 1.262 million units, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 27.4% year - on - year [67][71][79] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory decreased, Shanghai Free - Trade - Zone pure - nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social total inventory increased by 1,319 tons [80][84] 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate and MHP increased, while that from externally purchased nickel matte remained flat. The cost advantage of producing electrowinning nickel from integrated MHP over integrated nickel matte was obvious [87] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome rose, providing strong cost support. The losses of 200 - series and 400 - series stainless steel narrowed, while those of 300 - series stainless steel widened [94][98] 2.3 Fundamental Aspects - In August, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel increased. In June, stainless - steel exports and imports decreased, and they were expected to decline in July [102][105] 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic social inventory of stainless steel decreased. The inventory of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel decreased, while that of 400 - series stainless steel increased [111]