瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250819

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 7307 yuan/ton. Supply-wise, last week's PE output increased by 0.14% month-on-month to 661,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.1 percentage points to 86.82%. Demand-wise, the average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.4% month-on-month last week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 0.8% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 13.76% month-on-month to 444,500 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.22% month-on-month to 568,700 tons, with little overall inventory pressure. With the impact of shutdown devices expanding, this week's PE output and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline month-on-month. Downstream agricultural film is transitioning to the peak season, with shed film orders gradually accumulating; food and daily chemical packaging film have sporadic order accumulations, mainly for rigid demand. Overall, PE demand is seasonally increasing. The cost situation shows that the situation of stronger supply than demand for crude oil continues, and international oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Technically, the daily K-line of L2601 should focus on the support around 7260 and the pressure around 7400 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Directory Futures Market - The closing prices of futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) with January, September, and May deliveries all declined, with decreases of 27 yuan/ton, 24 yuan/ton, and 15448 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 195,031 lots, and the open interest was 360,140 lots, an increase of 18,230 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was -39. The buy volume, sell volume, and net buy volume of the top 20 positions in futures all decreased, with decreases of 6846 lots and 28,450 lots respectively [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China and East China decreased, with decreases of 12.61 yuan/ton and 8.57 yuan/ton respectively. The basis was 14.39 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore and the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan decreased, with decreases of 0.03 US dollars/barrel and 1.75 US dollars/ton respectively. The CFR middle prices of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in the petrochemical industry increased by 0.12 percentage points to 84.2% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film and agricultural film changed, with the packaging film operating rate decreasing by 0.23 percentage points to 49.07%, and the agricultural film operating rate increasing by 0.75 percentage points to 13.82%. The operating rate of PE in pipes was 30% [2] Option Market - The historical volatilities of 20 - day and 40 - day polyethylene decreased, with decreases of 0.63 percentage points and 1.71 percentage points respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options of polyethylene decreased, with decreases of 7.06 percentage points and 7.04 percentage points respectively [2] Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, China's total polyethylene output was 661,100 tons, a 0.14% increase from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 86.82%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% from the previous period. As of August 13th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 444,500 tons, a 13.76% decrease from the previous period; as of August 15th, the polyethylene social inventory was 556,500 tons, a 2.14% decrease from the previous period [2]