瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda main contract switched to the 01 contract. SH2601 fell 1.85% to close at 2,598 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. The alumina industry's profit is considerable and there is no planned production cut. Non-aluminum downstream peak season is approaching but the rigid demand is still weak. The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the pressure around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,598 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 64,074 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 21,262 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was -13,610 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 22 lots; the main contract trading volume was 210,358 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 109,318 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,598 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract was 2,694 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 31 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 250.5 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was -250 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 150 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 437,800 tons (wet tons), with a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. The alumina start-up rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber start-up rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing start-up rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance devices in Shandong and other places has further increased, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. The alumina industry is expected to operate stably. Non-aluminum downstream peak season is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak. The liquid caustic soda inventory pressure in Shandong is not large [3]