Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-19 09:02Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to remain flat, while demand gradually increases. Considering the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,825 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,971 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [3] - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the position of Shanghai lead is 92,719 lots, down 816 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 951 lots, up 1,142 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 61,353 tons, down 872 tons [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory is 260,475 tons, down 625 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 16,675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 44 US dollars/ton, down 0.76 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.25%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.53 tons, up 0.15 tons [3] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 70 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars; the global lead ore output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons [3] - The lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3] - The export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy is 19,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,020.01 points, up 31.2 points; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million, down 298,600 [3] - The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [3] 3.6 Industry News - There are multiple events including the US - Ukraine - EU White House meeting, the decline of the US homebuilder confidence index, Trump's plan to sign an executive order to abolish mail - in ballots, and Hamas's agreement to a new Gaza cease - fire proposal [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The production decision of some primary lead smelters has been adjusted, and the output of primary lead fluctuates slightly. The supply of recycled lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply side is tight [3] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - battery field. Although approaching the traditional consumption peak season, the actual demand has not yet shown explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [3] - The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an improvement in overall demand. The lead - battery industry is approaching the peak season, and the demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price [3]