瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face involves measures to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, foster service consumption, and increase effective investment. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad is rising, the zinc ore processing fee is continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth is accelerating. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, it is the off - season for downstream demand, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has declined year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, and downstream buyers purchase on demand at low prices, but the overall transaction is still dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price supports the domestic zinc price. Technically, the price is adjusted at a low position of holdings, breaking below the MA60, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 support. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,205 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 15 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The three - month zinc quotation on the LME is 2,777 US dollars/ton, down 19.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 214,599 lots, up 2,376 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 3,632 lots, down 10,163 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 32,538 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 76,803 tons (weekly), up 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 75,850 tons, down 475 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 8.65 US dollars/ton, down 3.43 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,990 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore output of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons (monthly), up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 114,900 tons (weekly), up 4,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. The monthly automobile output is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.45% (daily), up 1.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.45% (daily), up 1.43 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 5.36% (daily), down 2.39 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 13.12% (daily), up 0.09 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Macro - face: Measures should be taken to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, cultivate and expand service consumption, and increase effective investment [3].