Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-19 09:02Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report indicates that the recent slight decline in tin prices is mostly due to the rigid - demand purchases of downstream enterprises and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have slightly increased. LME inventories continue to decline. Technically, with the decline in positions and cautiousness from both long and short sides, the lower shadow阳线 shows support, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 268,090 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract of Shanghai tin is 40 yuan higher. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,702 dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 21,004 hands, down 1,092 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 713 hands. The total inventory of LME tin is 1,655 tons, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange (weekly) is 7,792 tons, down 13 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 145 tons, down 20 tons; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange (daily) are 7,513 tons [3]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,110 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 1,890 yuan/ton, down 1,670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 89 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,370 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. Industry News - Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluating policy implementation, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations. He also mentioned measures to strengthen the domestic large - scale cycle, stimulate consumption potential, expand effective investment, and promote the construction of a unified national market. There are also measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In July, the increase in production was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan's production area is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, since it has entered the traditional off - season, most downstream processing enterprises only maintain rigid - demand production and procurement, and the orders are just passable. Recently, the tin price has slightly declined, mainly due to the rigid - demand purchases of downstream enterprises and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The LME inventory continues to decline. Technically, with the decline in positions and cautiousness from both long and short sides, the lower shadow阳线 shows support, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3].