瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless - steel plants have improved, and the plants have increased production; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, but the downstream procurement demand is still weak, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased; the overseas LME inventory has increased [3]. - Technically, the price has fallen with an increase in positions, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,724 lots, a decrease of 200 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 11,094 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,841 tons, a decrease of 210 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 194.65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.23 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 billion tons, a decrease of 459,000 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3].