瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract fluctuated weakly. Macroscopically, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on August 20, 2025, to introduce the preparations for the military parade. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.62%, at a relatively high level; inventory was stable, and apparent demand rebounded. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, with the apparent demand returning to 3.1 million tons. There is a game between short - term tariff disturbances and pre - parade production restrictions. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,416 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the position volume was 1,184,978 lots, down 17,753 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 90,690 lots, down 2,637 lots. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was 13 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 80,166 tons, up 880 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 290 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,490 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 74 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, down 12 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.1927 million tons, up 1.07 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 390,500 tons, down 53,100 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.0978 million tons, down 95,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 1.1252 million tons, down 28,400 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, up 0.17 percentage points. The output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.1559 million tons, up 7,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 80.62%, up 0.18 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 799,800 tons, up 21,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.7749 million tons, down 12,600 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 to September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%. In addition, some steel mills received oral notices that from August 31 to September 3, blast furnaces will be restricted by 40%. The National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in July, the output of medium - thick wide steel strips in China was 18.414 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 132.435 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [3].