Workflow
瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The port methanol inventory is expected to continue accumulating due to high foreign vessel arrivals and weak downstream demand, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention. The olefin industry's operating rate is expected to increase after the restart of the Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin olefin plant to full - load operation. It is recommended to wait and see for the MA2601 contract, paying attention to the support level around 2370 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2391 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 106 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 686,276 lots, an increase of 20,648 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 117,839 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10,766, a decrease of 202 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2270 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2075 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 121 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 261 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 324 dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 272 euros/ton, unchanged. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 63 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 2.91 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.01 dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 68.7 tons, an increase of 4.5 tons; in South China ports, it is 33.48 tons, an increase of 5.13 tons. The methanol import profit is 41.49 yuan/ton, down 8.38 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 295,600 tons, an increase of 1900 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, an increase of 0.79% [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, an increase of 0.43%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, an increase of 1.82%; the acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, an increase of 1.82%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, a decrease of 3.23%; the olefin operating rate is 83.12%, a decrease of 0.77%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 957 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.82%, down 1.82%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.41%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 14.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.41%, an increase of 2.3% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 13, the total methanol port inventory in China was 102.18 tons, an increase of 9.63 tons. The sample production enterprise inventory was 29.56 tons, an increase of 0.19 tons, a 0.64% increase; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 21.94 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons, an 8.90% decrease. As of August 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 84.71%, a 0.41% decrease [3].