Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-19 08:59Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with stable demand. Spot supplies are relatively loose, and alumina inventory may accumulate slightly. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions when the price is high [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a situation of relatively stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the molten aluminum ratio. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions when the price is high [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy fundamentals may be in a stage of reduced supply and weakening demand during the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions when the price is high [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,545 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum is 45 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of alumina is 1 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy is 65 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Positions: The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 234,699 hands (up 61,704 hands), 192,727 hands (up 15,152 hands), and 7,912 hands (down 76 hands) respectively [2]. - Inventories: LME aluminum inventory is 479,525 tons, up 2,940 tons; Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventory is 120,653 tons, up 7,039 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 54.70 million tons, up 2.10 million tons [2]. - Other Indicators: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum is 14,621 hands, up 363 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.94, up 0.02; the historical volatility of 20 - day and 40 - day Shanghai Aluminum is 5.85% (down 0.10%) and 8.31% (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Net A00 aluminum is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,350 yuan/ton; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,490 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 255 yuan/ton, down 455 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 45 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the basis of alumina is 90 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan [2]. - Premiums and Discounts: The Shanghai Wuma Aluminum premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton (unchanged); the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 0.05 US dollars/ton, down 1.84 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina: The alumina production is 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the demand is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance is 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons; the import is 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons; the export is 23.00 million tons, up 6.00 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong metal scrap markets remains unchanged; China's import and export of aluminum scrap and waste are 155,616.27 tons (down 4,084.65 tons) and 64.33 tons (down 8.11 tons) respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import and export of primary aluminum are 192,314.50 tons (down 30,781.00 tons) and 19,570.72 tons (down 12,523.35 tons) respectively; the total production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production is 548.37 million tons, down 39.00 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, up 5.00 million tons [2]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot: The production is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the built - in production capacity is 126.00 million tons, down 1.10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile: The automobile production is 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - Real Estate: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Chinese government emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation, stimulating consumption, expanding investment, and stabilizing the real estate market [2]. - The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech [2]. - Economists expect the global average inflation rate in 2025 to be 4.0% [2]. - Chinese automobile dealers suffered losses in the first half of the year, and their expectations for growth in 2025 are lower than at the end of last year [2]. - China's urbanization is shifting to a stable development stage, and urban renewal is important for the real estate market [2].