Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-19 08:58Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the I2601 contract showed weak consolidation. Tariff disturbances affected market sentiment, causing the black - series to decline. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. The recommended operation is to short on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 771.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the position volume is 449,577 hands, up 674 hands [2]. - The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 18 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 4,627 hands, up 393 hands [2]. - The DCE warehouse receipt of I is 2,500.00 hands, down 100.00 hands [2]. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 is 101.1 dollars/ton, down 0.33 dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 833 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 823 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 696 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 52 yuan, down 2 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 101.05 dollars/ton, down 0.75 dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.40, up 0.06 [2]. - The estimated import cost is 830 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 3,406.60 million tons, up 359.90 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,703.10 million tons, up 131.50 million tons [2]. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 14,381.57 million tons, up 114.30 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,136.40 million tons, up 123.06 million tons [2]. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 10,462.00 million tons, down 133.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 23.00 days, up 5 days [2]. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 41.18 million tons, up 2.34 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 64.98%, up 3.02% [2]. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 34.60 million tons, down 2.00 million tons; the BDI index is 2,022.00, down 22.00 [2]. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 24.53 dollars/ton, down 0.33 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 9.78 dollars/ton, down 0.26 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 17.46%, down 1.33%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 19.48%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 18.70%, down 0.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 19.59%, up 0.78% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 11th to August 17th, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3406.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 359.9 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2756.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 225.7 million tons [2]. - From August 11th to August 17th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2703.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 131.5 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2476.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 94.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1252.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49.5 million tons [2].