税返退坡压力增大，警惕产能关停风险

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The implementation of policies such as the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a significant impact on aspects like local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry, increasing production costs and potentially leading to production cuts or shutdowns [2][3][10] - Under the influence of reverse invoicing investigations and tax rebate declines, the demand for invoiced resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase, and the production costs of ADC12 in East and South China may change structurally, providing strong support for the price of ADC12 [4][24] - Considering the cost - increase expectations on the smelting side and the supply shortage of scrap aluminum, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Event Overview - Since August 1, 2024, the "Regulations on the Review of Fair Competition" has clearly restricted tax incentives for specific operators. Recently, the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a major impact on local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry [10] Event Analysis - Due to the low entry threshold of the recycled aluminum industry and local tax rebate policies, a large amount of production capacity has expanded, resulting in intensified competition, thin profits, and low capacity utilization. As of July 2025, the monthly production capacity of 158 sample recycled cast aluminum enterprises reached 1264,500 tons, but the output was only 528,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 41.7%. In 2024, the operating production capacity of recycled aluminum in China was 23 million tons, and the actual output was 10.5 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 45%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 pcts [10] - There are "tax havens" in the recycled aluminum industry. The comprehensive tax burden of recycled aluminum enterprises in Anhui is about 6.5%, and the lowest can reach 5.5%, which can reduce the operating cost by 300 - 400 yuan/ton. In 2024, the production capacity of recycled aluminum in Anhui exceeded 2 million tons, accounting for more than 10% of the national total [11] - The policy aims to promote fair competition. The cancellation of local tax rebates may increase the comprehensive tax burden by about 4% and the production cost by up to 800 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in tax - haven areas may face production cuts or shutdowns. However, the policy implementation has a gradual nature, and most enterprises are given a buffer period [17][18] - The policy may reduce the demand for scrap aluminum, but if local governments investigate the compliance of reverse invoicing, the demand for invoiced and imported scrap aluminum will increase sharply. The cost in East China may increase significantly [21] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24]