需求承压利好债市，静待扰动消退趋势逆转

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although government bond issuance brings certain net - increase pressure, the certainty of the downward trend of capital prices is relatively high due to the marginal decline of the central bank's open - market maturity scale and the gradual subsidence of tax - period disturbances. In the long term, the bond yield is still in a downward trend under the background of weak fundamentals [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Performance Last Week - Bond yields generally increased, the term spread widened, and the curve became steeper. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 6BP to 1.7465%, the short - term interest rate rose slightly, and the term spread increased by 4BP. Bank - to - bank pledged repo rates and financial institution pledged repo rates both increased. The liquidity of the banking system remained reasonably abundant, and the R007 - DR007 spread narrowed, but the stratification between non - bank institutions and banks still existed [3]. Factors Driving Bond Yield Increases - The increase in market risk preference, tax - period disturbances, and the substantial increase in government bond supply jointly pushed up bond yields. The stock - bond seesaw effect, with the steady rise of the equity index, suppressed the bond market. The tax - period on the 15th led to a convergence of the money market and a significant increase in capital prices. The net increase in government bond issuance also contributed to the rise in bond yields [4]. Policy - related Influences - Policies on preventing capital idling and fiscal discount loans indicate that the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts may slow down. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report emphasizes preventing capital idling, suggesting a possible delay in the pace of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The fiscal discount policy for personal consumption and business loans strengthens the signal of a slowdown in the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts [5]. Fundamental Situation - Economic data generally declined, and loans in the real - sector weakened, reflecting the weak economic operation. In July, economic and financial data showed that the contradiction of "weak demand + resilient supply + low prices" continued. Industrial added - value growth slightly decreased, overall investment growth was dragged down by real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing, consumption momentum slightly slowed down, and financing in the resident and enterprise sectors was weak [6][7]. Capital - related Situation - This week, liquidity continued to be relatively loose. The maturity scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase decreased significantly, which will relieve capital pressure. The tax - period disturbances are gradually subsiding, and capital prices may decline [7]. Supply - side Situation - This week, local government bond issuance increased, and government bond issuance maintained a net - increase trend. It is expected that the central bank will adjust capital injection to maintain liquidity. The net increase in local government bond issuance this week was 2366 billion yuan compared with last week, and the net increase in Treasury bond issuance also increased by about 1000 billion yuan compared with last week. The scale of government bond payments decreased marginally compared with last week [8].