化工行业运行指标跟踪：2025年6月数据

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current cycle may be nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export demand are expected to remain robust in 2024, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. The consumer market has shown resilience after two years of recovery [4][5] - Supply-side pressures remain significant, with global chemical capital growth expected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline, but fixed asset investment continues to grow at over 15% [4] - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with inventory growth turning positive by Q3 2024. However, the overall price and profit levels in the chemical industry are expected to face pressure throughout the year [4] Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the chemical industry's comprehensive prosperity index and industrial added value [3] - Price indicators such as PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI are monitored, along with supply-side metrics like capacity utilization and fixed asset investment [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand stability is sought in industries led by supply logic, such as refrigerants and phosphates, with specific companies recommended for investment [7] - Conversely, industries with stable supply but driven by demand logic include MDI and explosives, with key companies highlighted [7] Global Market Trends - The report notes a shift in global investment and trade patterns due to rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for regional cooperation and stability [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in both domestic and international markets, focusing on new production capabilities and breakthroughs in material science [7] Price Trends and Economic Performance - The chemical product price index (CCPI) has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline of approximately 6.9% from January to April 2025 [14] - The PPI for chemical raw materials and products has also experienced a downward trend, with June 2025 figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [16]