Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-19 09:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is maintained as "Buy" [2][7][17] Core Views - The report highlights that the beer business is experiencing continuous improvement in profit margins, while the liquor business is under pressure due to weak demand [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of HKD 23.942 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 5.789 billion, up 23.04% year-on-year [7] - The report anticipates a continued increase in net profit margins driven by product structure upgrades and cost advantages in the beer segment [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: HKD 38,932 million - 2024: HKD 38,635 million - 2025E: HKD 38,360 million - 2026E: HKD 39,036 million - 2027E: HKD 39,626 million - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: HKD 5,153 million - 2024: HKD 4,739 million - 2025E: HKD 5,633 million - 2026E: HKD 5,690 million - 2027E: HKD 6,111 million - The report indicates a projected net profit growth of 19% in 2025, followed by 1% and 7% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [6][8] Business Performance - The beer segment achieved a revenue of HKD 23.161 billion in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6% and a sales volume of 6.49 million tons, up 2.2% [7] - The average price per ton of beer was HKD 3,570, reflecting a 0.4% increase year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for the beer business improved to 48.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The liquor business reported a revenue of HKD 781 million in H1 2025, a decline of 33.7% year-on-year, primarily due to weak business demand [7]