【资产配置快评】总量“创”辩第109期：突破3674，后市怎么看

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in corporate loans does not affect the "watch stocks and trade bonds, stock - bond reversal" judgment. The overall corporate financing scale is still growing, and the current market rally may have significant potential. The recovery of the residents' balance sheet is triggered by the return of the average earnings of the 3 - trillion - yuan funds issued during the 2019 - 2021 bull market. The market re - balancing style may be influenced by the subsequent inflow channels of market - entering funds. The bond market has entered the second stage of the "three - step" process in the second half of the year, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.75%. Euro assets face systemic risks, and most A - share and Hong Kong stock timing models are bullish [3][13][18]. Summary by Directory Macro - Zhang Yu - Corporate loan contraction is related to the control of manufacturing investment, which may be beneficial for PPI growth. The overall corporate financing scale is increasing as equity and bond financing have improved compared to the previous year. The current economic cycle is improving, and stocks are more cost - effective than bonds. The "watch stocks and trade bonds" narrative remains unchanged, and the central bank may address potential capital idling [13][15][16]. Strategy - Yao Pei - The balance sheets of various sectors are being repaired. The return of the average earnings of the 3 - trillion - yuan funds issued during the 2019 - 2021 bull market is a key trigger for the repair of the residents' balance sheet. The stock market is an important cornerstone for the repair of the residents' balance sheet. After the funds return to profitability, the redemption pressure may increase, and the "redemption" funds are likely to flow back to financial assets. The market re - balancing style is affected by the inflow channels of subsequent market - entering funds [18][19][25]. Fixed Income - Zhou Guannan - In August, the bond market enters the policy effect verification period, with potential support from new policy - based financial tools, "anti - involution" price repair, and external factors. Liquidity may face disturbances from payments and the stock - bond seesaw effect. The supply of bonds is increasing while demand is limited, resulting in supply - demand pressure. Historically, the bond market in August may be volatile. The bond market has entered the second stage of the "three - step" process in the second half of the year, and investors should adjust positions and take profits in a timely manner [26][27][30]. Multi - Asset Allocation - Guo Zhongliang - Euro assets face three systemic risks: extremely low risk premiums, weak economic recovery, and a strong euro. These risks may lead investors to reduce their allocation of euro assets [32][33][34]. Quantitative Finance - Wang Xiaochuan - Most A - share and Hong Kong stock timing models are bullish. The total positions of stock - type and hybrid funds have increased this week. Communication and basic chemicals have received the largest institutional increases, while transportation and electronics have received the largest institutional decreases. The VIX index has risen. The recommended industries for next week are textile and apparel, consumer services, power and utilities, transportation, and non - ferrous metals [34][39][46]. Finance - Xu Geng - The A - share trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan on 27 trading days in three periods, indicating the market's evolution towards a more mature one. The current trading volume and margin trading balance confirm active market sentiment. The securities sector has performance growth and valuation repair potential. Short - term focus on market sentiment - driven opportunities, and long - term focus on high - quality targets [47][48].