有色金属周度观点-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The copper market is under pressure and oscillating, with significant resistance in the upper trading range. The aluminum and alumina markets are maintaining a shock. The zinc market lacks effective resonance between fundamentals and macro - factors, with insufficient directionality. The lead market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions. The nickel and stainless - steel market shows different trends, with nickel in the middle - late stage of rebound and stainless - steel seeing inventory reduction and supply increase expectations. The tin market is supported by the MA60 moving average, and the lithium carbonate market has strong price trends. The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets have limited fundamental improvements [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - Market Sentiment: Sino - British tariff policies have a short - term impact. The market is still speculating on a September interest rate cut by the Fed. The UK inflation shows differentiation, and consumer confidence turns down [1]. - Domestic Consumption: High - price fluctuations of Shanghai copper affect downstream procurement. The current demand is mainly supported by the power grid. The output of recycled copper is affected by policies, and the market is not optimistic about copper consumption in mid - August [1]. - Trend: The upper trading resistance of the copper market is significant, and it is expected that Shanghai copper will trade between 78,000 - 79,600 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: Ore prices in Guinea are stable. The domestic smelting cost is 3,000 - 3,100 yuan. The operating capacity of alumina has reached a new high, and the inventory has increased. The spot index is declining, and the futures are weakly oscillating [1]. - Supply: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is around 4.4 million tons with low elasticity [1]. - Demand: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8% week - on - week to 90.5% [1]. - Trend: The aluminum market is maintaining a shock, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Market and Supply: The rebound momentum of LME zinc is still weak. The supply pressure is relatively high due to the continuous realization of domestic and foreign mine increments and the high - level by - product prices [1]. - Demand and Capital: Demand continues to show weak characteristics. The market tends to trade the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the macro - trading sentiment is repeated [1]. - Trend: There is a lack of effective resonance between fundamentals and macro - factors. There is room to short - sell mine profits on the disk, and it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - Market and Supply: Both domestic and foreign lead prices are under pressure at the 40 - day moving average. The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the primary lead production is active. The secondary lead production capacity is seriously excessive [1]. - Consumption: Affected by multiple factors, the consumption in the peak season is insufficient. Pay attention to the improvement of battery orders from scattered customers [1]. - Trend: The disk capital congestion is low. There is a possibility of a short - term return of long positions. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - Market and Demand: The stainless - steel market has seen improved transactions due to factors such as approaching the consumption peak season and low arrivals. However, the supply is expected to increase in August [1]. - Spot and Supply: The spot premiums of different types of nickel vary. The ferro - nickel inventory is basically flat, the pure nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased but remains at a high level [1]. - Trend: Nickel is in the middle - late stage of rebound, and it is advisable to actively short [1]. Tin - Market: The tin price continued to decline last week, with resistance at $34,000 for LME tin and Shanghai tin weighted in the range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan [1]. - Supply: There is no new news about tin ore. Domestic smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are operating at low levels, and the market is observing the production plans of leading enterprises [1]. - Consumption: It is in the peak season in China, with "seeking re - melting" and replenishing inventory. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory is at a low level [1]. - Trend: Supported by the MA60 moving average, the tin price has a risk of rising in the long - term, and it is advisable to hold long positions [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The futures market has high sentiment and large differences between long and short positions. The spot market has price increases, and the supply is affected by mine suspension [1]. - Demand: Downstream cathode material factories are preparing for the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional sales season, and the production has started to increase this month [1]. - Trend: The price trend is strong, and it is advisable to adopt a short - term long strategy with good risk control [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: It is oscillating in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton, driven by lithium carbonate and polysilicon production [1]. - Supply: Xinjiang's large - scale factories have resumed production, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan maintain low operating rates [1]. - Inventory: The SIBN inventory has decreased by 2,000 tons to 565,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The polysilicon field has increased production, and the organic silicon market has new orders. There may be an increase in production during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. - Trend: The sentiment is strong in the short - term, but the fundamental improvement is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - Price: There is strong support below 50,000 yuan/ton, and resistance appears at 63,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: The production in August may exceed 130,000 tons. The export - related goods are basically finished, and the production and prices of battery cells and components are under pressure [1]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts have increased by 1,900 lots to 5,600 lots, and the factory inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 242,000 tons [1]. - Trend: The high - inventory pattern of spot goods suppresses price increases. There are long - buying opportunities below 50,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton [1]. Recommended Strategies - Hold the previous short - selling strategy for Shanghai aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Buy put options with an exercise price of 17,000 yuan for the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract at a low level. There are opportunities in put option end - of - cycle trading [1].