2025年7月经济数据点评：经济平稳运行还需结构性支持

Economic Data Overview - In July 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.7% year-on-year, below the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8%[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, compared to an expected 4.6% and a prior value of 4.8%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% and previous 2.8%[1] Industrial Production Insights - The industrial production growth rate slowed due to "anti-involution" and extreme weather, aligning with seasonal patterns[2] - The electrical machinery and electronic equipment sectors maintained double-digit growth despite a decline, while the automotive sector saw significant downturns[2] - Service sector production index showed resilience with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8%, slightly down from June[2] Consumer Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales declined due to demand front-loading and reduced subsidy impacts, particularly in automotive consumption[3] - Restaurant consumption saw a slight recovery, but overall levels remained low, while travel-related services benefited from summer travel[3] - Future consumption growth is expected to stabilize unless stronger supportive policies are introduced[3] Investment Challenges - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for four consecutive months, with manufacturing investment dropping by 5.4 percentage points to -0.3% year-on-year[4] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 7.3 percentage points to -2.0% year-on-year, affected by high base effects and adverse weather[4] - Despite current challenges, infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in the third quarter with accelerated issuance of special bonds[4] Real Estate Sector Analysis - Real estate investment saw an expanded year-on-year decline of 4.1 percentage points to -17.0%, with both construction and completion phases experiencing downturns[5] - Sales continue to be constrained by demand limitations, despite policy relaxations in major cities[5] - The sector remains in a bottoming phase, with future recovery dependent on effective supply-side policies[5]