山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold futures closed down 0.13%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver futures closed down 0.25% [2]. - The short - term core logic is that trade agreements are reached in batches, Russia - Ukraine talks begin, and the demand for hedging declines. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rebounds [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai Gold futures closed down 0.13%, and international gold prices such as Comex gold and London gold also declined [2][3]. - Core Logic: The short - term trade agreements and the start of Russia - Ukraine talks led to a decline in hedging demand. The US economic stagflation risk increased, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation rebounded. In terms of the hedging attribute, the US - Russia leaders' meeting and the US - China tariff truce affected the market. In terms of the monetary attribute, the strong growth of US retail sales and the jump in wholesale prices added uncertainty to the Fed's interest rate cut. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index's rebound was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [2]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. - Data Details: Various data including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex gold's main contract closed at $3378.00 per ounce, down 0.11% from the previous day [3]. Silver - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai Silver futures closed down 0.77%, while international silver prices such as Comex silver and London silver rose slightly [2][7]. - Core Logic: The price of silver is anchored by the price of gold. The net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly reduced, and the visible inventory slightly increased [6]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. - Data Details: Similar to gold, data on international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex silver's main contract closed at $38.07 per ounce, up 0.12% from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attribute: Data on the Federal Reserve's interest rates, M2, US bond yields, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, etc. are presented. For example, the federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, and the 10 - year US real bond yield is 2.61% [9][11]. - Hedging Attribute: The geopolitical risk index and VIX index are provided. The geopolitical risk index is 238.03, up 25.94% from the previous day [12]. - Commodity Attribute: The CRB commodity index and the offshore RMB exchange rate are given. The CRB commodity index is 296.02, up 0.16% from the previous day [12]. - Fed's Interest Rate Expectation: The probability of the Fed's interest rate range in different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [13].