冠通研究：等待新的驱动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and trended downwards. The market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut situation ahead of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The fundamental situation has no significant change, and the market is waiting for new drivers. There is support at 78,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting on Thursday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Market sentiment: The Jackson Hole meeting is approaching, and the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut. Powell is expected to make cautious decisions. The improvement of the Russia - Ukraine situation has cooled market risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. Concentrate port inventories are at a five - year low. TC/RC fees are stabilizing and rising. Long - term contracts are profitable, while spot contracts are still in the red. The high sulfuric acid price supports smelter profits. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production is expected to be stable in the short term, but smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid overstock [1]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. The real estate sector still drags down demand, with a 12% year - on - year decline in real estate development investment and a 4% decline in new commercial housing sales area from January to July. However, the power grid and new energy sectors bring demand resilience. SHFE inventories increased this week, indicating short - term weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened lower and closed at 78,890 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,052 to 94,551 lots, and short positions decreased by 4,444 to 92,496 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 155 yuan/ton, and in South China is 50 yuan/ton. On August 18, 2025, the LME official price was 9,730 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 103.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 37.98 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventories remained unchanged at 25,500 tons. As of August 18, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventories increased by 7,500 tons to 88,200 tons. LME copper inventories decreased slightly by 450 tons to 155,200 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased by 1,875 short tons to 269,000 short tons [9].