Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends going long on oils and fats as the bullish drivers are temporarily difficult to disprove [2] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price, inventory, production, and export data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and points out that due to the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the supply of rapeseed may be tight; the production and export situation of palm oil in Malaysia is complex; and the production of US soybeans has both high - yield expectations and area reduction [1][2] Summary by Related Content Price Data - Palm Oil: On August 15, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9710, 9640, and 9300 respectively, while on August 18, they were 9440, 9370, and 9570, with a one - price change of 270 [1] - Soybean Oil: On August 15, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8660, 8780, and 8760 respectively, and on August 18, they were 8710, 8830, and 8810, with a one - price change of 50 [1] - Rapeseed Oil: On August 15, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9900, 10080, and 10160 respectively, and on August 18, they were 10030, 9950, and 10290, with a one - price change of 130 [1] Futures Data - The spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts changed from - 926 to - 1068, a decrease of 142; the spread between rapeseed and soybean main contracts changed from 1310 to 1223, a decrease of 87; palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 1420, and soybean oil warehouse receipts increased from 14840 to 15310, an increase of 470 [1] Supply and Demand Information - Rapeseed: The Ministry of Commerce preliminarily ruled that there was dumping of imported Canadian rapeseed. From August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% deposit. The procurement of domestic distant - month rapeseed is slow, and the supply may be tight. The estimated arrival volume in August is about 200,000 tons, and the average monthly arrival volume from September to October is about 130,000 tons [2] - Palm Oil: Bloomberg's July MPOB estimate shows that production increased 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased 10% to 2.23 million tons. In Malaysia, from August 1 - 5, production decreased 17.27% month - on - month; from August 1 - 10, exports increased 23.3% (ITS) and 23.7% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [2] - Soybean: The USDA report increased the yield per acre of US soybeans to 53.6 bushels/acre but decreased the planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a production decrease of 43 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The weather in the next two weeks is favorable for yield, and as of August 10, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68% [2]
油脂数据日报-20250819
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-08-19 11:12