银河期货粕类日报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market is mainly affected by cost increases, but there are many uncertainties in the market. The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate. The rapeseed meal market has significant price fluctuations, and the supply shortage still provides some support for the price. In the medium - term, the rapeseed meal market will have relatively obvious positive factors. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategies are to buy low for single - side trading, expand the MRM05 spread for arbitrage, and buy call options [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - The US soybean futures continued to be strong, and the domestic soybean meal futures rebounded after a phased adjustment. The upward trend of rapeseed meal futures slowed down. The month - to - month spread of soybean meal declined significantly, while that of rapeseed meal strengthened but still fluctuated. The near - month spread of rapeseed meal showed a restorative upward trend, and the far - month spread reflected concerns about future supply [4]. - For soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3161, 2844, and 3113 respectively, with changes of +6, - 3, and +13. For rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 2604, 2505, and 2678 respectively, with changes of +14, +1, and - 10 [4]. - In terms of basis, for soybean meal in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao, the current basis was - 50, - 190, - 170, and - 140 respectively, with changes of +30, - 10, - 10, and +10. For rapeseed meal in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi, the current basis was - 38, - 38, and - 48 respectively, with changes of +40, 0, and 0 [4]. - Regarding the month - to - month spread, for soybean meal, the 59, 91, and 15 spreads were - 269, - 48, and 317 respectively, with changes of - 16, +7, and +9. For rapeseed meal, the 59, 91, and 15 spreads were - 173, 74, and 99 respectively, with changes of +11, - 24, and +13 [4]. - The cross - variety spreads: the current spreads of soybean - rapeseed 01 and 09 were 557 and 435 respectively, compared with 565 and 412 yesterday. The oil - meal ratio of 01 was 2.697, compared with 2.699 yesterday. The current spot spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean meal - sunflower meal, and rapeseed meal - sunflower meal were 377, 473, and 116 respectively, with changes of - 51, - 7, and +4 [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - In the US, the old - crop soybean balance sheet is clearly positive. Exports are basically completed, and the crush volume is also increased, resulting in a certain decrease in the ending stocks. For new - crop soybeans, although the yield per unit is increased, the supply is tightened due to a large reduction in the planting area. The cumulative exports of new - crop soybeans are still slow. The new - crop stock - to - use ratio is expected to have limited positive effects. If more positive factors emerge, the US soybean futures may continue to be strong [5]. - In South America, the old - crop soybeans are in a situation of relatively loose supply and demand. The soybean production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crush volume will increase by 8.21 million tons. The total ending stocks or exports may increase. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers is relatively slow, and there is still price pressure. However, the relatively high price of Brazilian soybeans is due to the optimistic outlook for future exports [5]. - Internationally, the supply pressure of soybean meal is still obvious. It is expected that the soybean crush volume in major producing areas will increase by 21.536 million tons throughout the year, while the imports of major soybean meal importing countries only increase slightly. The soybean - related market still faces pressure, and the price center is expected to decline [5]. - In China, the domestic soybean meal spot market is still loose. The oil refinery operating rate remains high, the supply is sufficient, and the提货量 also increases. The inventory remains at a high level. The market trading volume increases, mainly in basis trading. There are increasing concerns about the tight supply in the far - month. As of August 15, the actual soybean crush volume of oil refineries was 2.339 million tons, the operating rate was 65.75%, the soybean inventory was 6.804 million tons, a decrease of 301,600 tons (4.24%) from last week and a decrease of 243,500 tons (3.46%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, an increase of 11,200 tons (1.12%) from last week and a decrease of 481,800 tons (32.2%) year - on - year [7]. - The demand for rapeseed meal in China has gradually weakened recently. The operating rate of oil refineries has decreased, but the overall supply is still sufficient, and the supply pressure remains. Although there are uncertainties in the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the demand is also weakening. As of the week of August 15, the rapeseed crush volume of major coastal oil refineries was 44,800 tons, and the operating rate this week was 11.94%. The rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil refineries was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 25,500 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from last week [7]. 3.3 Macroeconomics - The negotiation between China and the US in London has been completed, but the market lacks clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. There are still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market stabilizes, macro - disturbances decrease. Since China still has a high demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the price is not likely to drop significantly in the short - term, especially in the absence of macro - guidance [8]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures fluctuate mainly because the cost is significantly increased. The current price of US soybeans does not fully reflect the positive factors, and the situation in the monthly supply - demand report is more affected by the exports of US new - crop soybeans, which is also closely related to the domestic soybean meal supply. Therefore, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [9]. - The rapeseed meal market has significantly enlarged price fluctuations. After a large - scale adjustment in the past few days, the price shows some support after the decline. The market generally pays attention to the import of Australian rapeseed. In the medium - term, the positive factors for rapeseed meal will be relatively obvious. In the future, the rapeseed meal market may need to limit the demand through a lower price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [9]. - The month - to - month spread of soybean meal still faces downward pressure, while that of rapeseed meal is expected to be strong, especially for the far - month spread [9].