乙二醇供给增量叠加累库压制，延续偏弱震荡

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The ethylene glycol price may continue to fluctuate weakly, driven by port inventory accumulation, increasing coal - based production, and lack of marginal demand growth. In the short - term, the price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the need to monitor the cost - end price changes and the fulfillment of peak - season demand expectations [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - Price and Basis: The main contract of ethylene glycol dropped from 4412 yuan/ton on August 15th to 4392 yuan/ton on August 18th, a 0.45% decline. The East China spot price fell from 4455 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 48 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 43 yuan/ton [2] - Position and Trading Volume: The main contract's open interest decreased from 148,000 lots to 133,000 lots, a 10.54% decline, while the trading volume increased from 72,000 lots to 110,000 lots, a 53.7% increase [2] - Supply: The ethylene glycol operating rate rose from 62.64% to 64.05%, with the oil - based route's operating rate increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 64.13%, and the coal - based operating rate remaining stable at 64.03% [2] - Demand: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load stayed at 63.43%. Downstream demand entered a plateau, and the willingness to replenish raw material inventory was limited [2] - Inventory: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons in a week, with Zhangjiagang's inventory soaring 40.6% to 180,000 tons. The incoming volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, indicating reduced port shipping efficiency and accelerating accumulation of supply - demand surplus pressure [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and Spot Prices: The main contract of MEG futures dropped from 4412 yuan/ton to 4392 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decline. The East China spot price fell from 4455 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, also a 0.45% decline [5] - Spreads: The MEG basis widened from 48 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton, a 41.67% increase. The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 43 yuan/ton, a 10.26% decline [5] - Profits and Operating Rates: The coal - based profit remained at - 350 yuan/ton. The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased from 62.6% to 64.1%, the oil - based operating rate rose from 61.7% to 64.1%, and the coal - based operating rate remained stable [5] - Inventory and Incoming Volume: The East China main port inventory increased from 427,000 tons to 486,000 tons, a 13.69% increase. Zhangjiagang's inventory increased from 128,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a 40.62% increase. The incoming volume decreased from 168,700 tons to 101,700 tons, a 39.72% decline [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On August 18th, the East China US - dollar market weakened in the morning and fluctuated slightly in the afternoon. The Shaanxi ethylene glycol spot price remained stable, and the mainstream market was weakly sorted with a strong spot basis [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, East China main port inventory statistics, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11]